NFL Week 12 Picks

Sunday, November 25, 2018

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
Both the simulations and the gambling lines are on the Eagles to win the game. The projected score is Eagles 26 and Giants 20, with Philadelphia winning 65 percent of the time. The Eagles have been -240 favorites to win that has an estimated chance of 71 percent. The moneyline has moved out of its launching value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Eagles to win. In recent seasons this was a lopsided matchup with the Eagles going 4-1. In such games the Eagles averaged 28 points per game and the Giants 23. The computer would place the spread at PHI -6. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line hasn’t moved from its opening -6. The Eagles have a list of 10-10-0 as a favored. The Giants have a list of 11-11-0 within an underdog. While they may be 1-4 up vs the Eagles, the Giants are better against the spread. The Giants are 3-2-0 against the spread vs the Eagles. The Eagles were favored by a mean of all -2.4 points in those games and they won by an average of 5.8 points.
New England Patriots vs New York Jets
Both the simulations and also the gambling lines are strongly on the Patriots to win the match despite being on the street. The projected score is Patriots 30 and Jets 22, with New England being given a 68% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Patriots is -526 which translates to 84 percent (likelihood of winning). Individuals are gambling more heavily on the Patriots based on how the moneyline is shifting. The Patriots have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-0 record. In these matches, the Patriots averaged 28 and the Jets 11 ppg. The computer would place the spread at NE -8. Bettors appear to be favoring the Patriots as the Vegas line has moved from +9 to 10. The Patriots have a list of 6-4-0 as a favored. The Jets have a record of 9-10-2 as an underdog. Both have covered 2 times head-to-head. The typical point spread in these matches was Patriots -12.9 and they won by an average of 17.5 points.

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